Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 20.144291 21.925997 23.896861 26.259582 29.043824 32.257985 36.306207
2025-01-19 18.000820 20.469778 23.421830 27.295979 32.385141 39.066992 48.942587
2025-01-26 16.016593 18.746434 22.187224 27.006751 33.892630 43.971728 61.312553
2025-02-02 14.708128 17.608268 21.421290 27.061613 35.743724 49.847852 78.424810
2025-02-09 13.761684 16.784354 20.901495 27.287804 37.813154 56.764734 102.878181
2025-02-16 12.956768 16.040368 20.363331 27.342481 39.559218 63.808599 135.808061
2025-02-23 12.197851 15.274348 19.684713 27.035055 40.559049 69.816068 176.249914
2025-03-02 11.636945 14.732361 19.266796 27.065902 42.169450 78.072864 247.990557
2025-03-09 11.099863 14.176781 18.763969 26.862925 43.251938 85.720293 355.572973
2025-03-16 10.621944 13.670632 18.286170 26.627513 44.202700 93.743976 547.423141
2025-03-23 10.197588 13.214204 17.844577 26.392493 45.097327 102.424207 965.272898
2025-03-30 9.830979 12.820940 17.470607 26.231078 46.129509 112.701487 2433.061299
2025-04-06 9.411975 12.329829 16.909344 25.664557 46.101594 119.274381 10814.486011
2025-04-13 9.309639 12.323161 17.155321 26.718856 50.587549 153.059367 NaN
2025-04-20 8.998505 11.969145 16.780759 26.462667 51.441964 169.912252 NaN
2025-04-27 8.762084 11.721038 16.570960 26.524924 53.272276 198.130582 NaN
2025-05-04 8.567259 11.528750 16.443906 26.747372 55.703049 240.214426 NaN
2025-05-11 8.362430 11.309265 16.251874 26.801763 57.642880 288.475083 NaN
2025-05-18 8.123995 11.023518 15.921372 26.505065 58.307457 327.864640 NaN
2025-05-25 7.944447 10.826901 15.741351 26.535143 60.199312 404.796132 NaN
2025-06-01 7.747390 10.592628 15.477438 26.338900 61.204192 482.606111 NaN
2025-06-08 7.558332 10.364231 15.211714 26.111181 62.044119 578.948011 NaN
2025-06-15 7.380224 10.147532 14.956436 25.883772 62.845030 706.669279 NaN